Since I think SF has the schedule and talent to be a top seed, my pick would be Trey Lance. I still expect a ton of sacks, probably too many killer sack fumbles, and a defense that gets shreded week to week(sorry Bengals fans). After enjoying a decade and a half of Hall of Fame-level quarterback play, the Steelers found out how the other half lived over the last couple of seasons. However, there are multiple factors working against Akers entering this short week that have me betting the Under 45.5 yards, as I believe this Over/Under is a bit of an overreaction to Sundays showing. Jackson Roberts: Davante Adams, WR, LV. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Las Vegas. They cannot throw deep, as Kyler Murray has some of the worst deep attempt splits we have ever seen. Jackson Roberts: Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Detroit Lions. Yes, he isnt as gifted as a Rodgers or aMatthew Stafford. For years, the only player who had ever picked up a thousand yards rushing and receiving in the same year was Roger Craig, who happened to play for my favorite team when I was a kid. Well, Black Sunday night, I guess. Do you have any faith in Matt LaFleur coaching that vikings team instead vs Rodgers with Zimmer? That's the Philadelphia Eagles at +2200. Their defense is exciting for DFS players, but not Dolphins fans. It will not be easy to make Raiders vs. Rams predictions because this is an ugly game. And GB has a prety solid player at QB. No. We know that Justin Herbert is the kind of quality quarterback who can win a Super Bowl title. For +6000, however, I'm willing to put a little bit of longshot money on the Isaiah Likely hype. Editors' Note: These lines fluctuate quite regularly and can differ from site to site. How likely is Dallas to start 2-8, though, absent another major Dak injury? This week's bonus question asks best bets to win the NFC. Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have better DVOA projections. I picked Christian McCaffrey as my offensive player of the year, and if he's anywhere near that conversation, surely, he's the comeback player as well. Aligning the talent. Be sure to also check out our three favorite MNF player prop picks, as well as our three favorite Tom Brady spotlight props for this matchup. For a rb to win MVP, we would need a similar dead heat race between two QBs plus a running back putting up huge numbers on a team that was a 1 seed. They have also scored more at home, with Succop perfect on extra points this year (15-for-15). I guess it's in part because their conference is weaker at the top, and inside the AFC, their division is weaker than at least the West and the North. I mean, we don't just have the Eagles on top of the NFC East. So in theory their path to the conference championship game is easier. 2021: 77.1. But the Rams are 31st in DVOA against WR1s, and you could argue that Adams is the best WR1 going right now. The Rams have fallen to 3-9, with defensive superstar Aaron Donald and quarterback Matthew Stafford shut down for the season. He's one tough SOB. - the offensive line should greatly improved this year, In reply to Where are the new Scramble articles for the 2022 season? For the opening salvo of Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams will play host to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football. I try to make sense of the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Raiders at Rams on December 8. Wade Philips gets canned midseason for Jason Garrett. That's not the most important part of coaching, necessarily, but it is one of the most visible, and having success in a visible way is a great way to garner attention and votes. So I think he's a good choice for Comeback Player of the Year. Get the latest betting offers for our winning football betting tips including 1x2 (WDW), Correct Score, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Under/Over 2.5 Goals, BTTS & Win and a host of multi-bet accumulators. And here's some fun with our new quarterback directional stats: Kyler Murray ranks dead last among qualified players on deep passes, while the Patriots rank third against deep passes. When I placed a few bets in Las Vegas last year, I also did not place a bet on any AP award. Aaron:I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. But the Houston Texans have a bad year, and when we get to the end of the season it becomes clear that the man they wanted as head coach all along was Josh McCown. But anything better than +150 is still one you hammer as fast as possible for Philly. Aaron: OK, you want to go with Joey Bosa? 2022 Week 14 Steelers Vs Ravens Live Update And Discussion Thread First Half, Kenny Pickett Obviously Befitting The 1st-Round Pick They Took Him With, Ravens HC Says. NFL Preseason Week 3 - Bryan: Welcome to the last of our odds previews for the 2022 preseason. Bryan: This award comes down to which defensive players, in any given season, are just about as good as Aaron Donald. New Orleans sits No. I think the 49ers are the better team, and even the better team with Brock Purdy at quarterback, but come on, the idea of Tom Brady beating a great defense when that team's offense is hamstrung by a seventh-round rookie? Dalvin Cook makes it three out of three running backs for my picks, which may be silly considering the actual guy with the vote just picked a bunch of wideouts, but you're right. But with Sean Payton theoretically available next year, and Dan Quinn getting more out of lesser players on the defense than Moore and McCarthy could with better players on offense, I'm not convinced he'd be the one to replace McCarthy. Los Angeles could succeed by handing the ball off to Cam Akers, but hes one of the least efficient backs in the NFL. O'Connell is brand new. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. I'm intentionally going contrarian here, but you only need Minnesota to win one-out-of-seven times to come out ahead here. My best bet: Cam Akers Under 45.5 rushing yards (-120). The Cardinals have had a negative DVOA in six of their last seven games. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Regardless of win/loss records or the state of the NFC South, Monday Night Football between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a monster matchup that will define the division and the path to the playoffs. Cousins has fumbled about ten times a season give or take since 2015. I have too many prior disappointments to rely on the Cowboys in the playoffs, I'm not ready to hitch my wagon to Brock Purdy, and everyone else on the board feels fatally flawed. Quis autem vel eum iure reprehenderit qui in ea voluptate velit esse quam nihil molestiae consequatur, vel illum qui dolorem? You don't see it? 2021 was Mahomes's highest usage year by alot, so you'd expect the rate stats to drop. That said, it makes the some sense for the Steelers, even if Garoppolos contract is a bit inflated for 2022, and considering the fact he would need to be extended right away if the Steelers are making a move for him. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Aaron: Well, I have been on all kinds of radio shows and podcasts and even Good Morning Football talking about how the Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorites. Bet Now, B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Before Stafford was lost to injury, Sean McVays playbook was handing off on only 36.35% of snaps fourth lowest in the league for an average of just 22.1 rush attempts per contest (fewest in the NFL). Copyright 1995 - 2022 This time around, things will be different, because this is a different Mike White. He's my longshot pick at +8000. Getting Philadelphia at plus-value is probably the pick, but Ill take Dallas at slightly better odds. MVP is a bit of a narrative award also, and Mahomes putting up big numbers after losing Hill makes a nice story. But I'm still not seeing why they should be Super Bowl favorites. Aaron Schatz: Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ. The North sucking last year is predicated on Cleveland having an injured QB, Baltimore having an injured everyone, and Cincinnati being unable to block for their year 1.5 QB. Aaron: I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. Drew Brees was the league's leading passer, but the Saints had a losing record. I'm writing articles on Thursdays now! In reply to The mvp has devolved into by Jetspete. Carl Yedor: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. Of course, Im talking about the Steelers potentially trading for Garoppolo, snagging him away from the San Francisco 49ers, which happened to be the prediction from FOs Robert Weintraub. Instead, for best value, I'll go with the team that's currently No. Support Football Outsiders' independent media. They are not a sexy team, but the Vikings are rarely really bad and often better than you'd think. Based on the various podcasts/articles the Vikings are clearly a popular pick to 'surprise'. Somewhat shockingly, that's Dameon Pierce, the fourth-round pick out of Florida who has just blown Texans camp away, to the point where Houston started holding him out of preseason games because they had honestly seen enough. One big win fueled by passing, one close loss, then a throttling by the Buffalo Bills. Double your odds! So 2021 was no aberration. In reply to Surprised there was no by mehllageman56. And Kirk was very fortunate last season. If Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing attack can outduel the Baltimore Ravens secondary, they should hopefully be able to take care of business against a weaker Titans passing defense. He had the college production and great measurables and he's in a good situation where he can be the top pass-rusher and get plenty of snaps. Staley isn't. (so no pick for Executive of the Year? (maybe about how much they drink while betting), (2 ridiculous picks isn't bad at all when making this many picks). No shortage of coverage throughout the season. In part because they have been hilariously unhealthy. He just might need a little help elsewhere to get noticed. But +9000 is a 1.1% chance of things happening. Also, it's Matt Rhule. Only Rogers and Brady have the publics trust to match Mahomes' mean efficiency and both are much much older. New users can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Aaron: There has been a lot of talk about Justin Jefferson in the "Cooper Kupp role" with Kevin O'Connell bringing the Sean McVay offense over to Minnesota. Aaron: Voters like numbers when it comes to defensive players, and linebackers get numbers. Surprised there was no mention of Sauce Gardner or George Karlaftis in the DROY discussion. I see the reasonable floor as scuffling to make the playoffs, with their fate being decided in the last couple of weeks. He's way, way ahead of any of the other options that are above +5000. In reply to They aren't necessarily a by Aaron Brooks G. Game script would also work against running the ball, considering Las Vegas is a 6-point favorite and likely forcing L.A. to play from behind and pass more, even with McVay being relentless with the run despite falling behind against the Chiefs and Saints. That effort prompted oddsmakers to set Akers rushing yards total at 45.5 for Thursday night a tempting Over considering his increase in carries and the fact Akers has gone for totals of 61 and 60 yards in two of his last three contests. I look at the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for the Saints vs. Maybe the owner's too busy to fire someone midseason, but unless the Commanders are significantly more competent than I'm giving them credit for, it's probably time for a complete restart. If you grew up in the late 80s./early 90s, the top six SB favorites would make you think you had landed on a different planet. '), and narratives do win awards like this. And this line has swung FIVE points in the direction of the Lions since the books opened, which should tell you that Vegas wins big if the Vikings win. And maybe if Lawrence is even better he gets MVP votes? In fact, it's probably more likely to happen if the Bills take a lead and the Jets have to throw to come back, compared to the close game these teams played five weeks ago. My two cents is that Zimmer began to slip on the last one. The division strugglesCincinnati is more like they were in the regular season than the playoffs; Jackson doesn't find his 2019 form in Baltimore; Cleveland, is, well, Cleveland. The Bucs lost to a terrible Panthers team with PJ Walker. Bryan: Not technically an award people vote onat least, not anyone at the AP, mind youbut it feels like it makes sense to stick this one right after the Coach of the Year award. That means another year with a lot of passes going to Kupp. The 2019 team had a better point differential than the 13-3 Packers did. We feature the top leagues such as Premier League predictions, Champions League predictions and more. In reply to Aside: PFR is still using by Spanosian Magn. Ah but what if KC is the kind of defense where teams will not chance a pressure or a sack on long yardage. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? I'll go with Nick Bosa! Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. He has done a wonderful job of managing his salary. Analysis has shown that barring qb a team can absorb the loss of a great player contingent on making good decisions elsewhere. In reply to If you grew up in the late by Aaron Brooks G. The Bills may have the highest odds of any team, but it's probably like 20% at best(that might be to high). How would you react if a boxing judge were suggesting picks in an upcoming show for which they were judging? This is one where the win projection is higher than Schatz would like, but he believes there is reason for optimism. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. Steelers Predicted As Landing Spot For Jimmy Garoppolo By ESPN Insider Field Yates https://t.co/Ckbulz9OeX #Steelers pic.twitter.com/gwN2Bs5w71, Steelers Depot 7 (@Steelersdepot) March 4, 2022. Yes, we have the Chargers slightly ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs this year. I think he has higher quality players around him as a pass-rusherwhile San Francisco's depth is fantastic, they don't have someone like Khalil Mack to draw blockers away from Nick. Hey, somebody has to catch the ball in Baltimore besides Mark Andrews. Lines are taken from the consensus at Vegas Insider. Now we come on to the big onesthe winners of the league's individual awards. It's a little surprising he was brought back for 2022 to begin with, as the Panthers have had roughly zero success with him in charge. And now for Moore, or perhaps Sean Payton. Everyone gets praise in training campit's a praise-generating machinebut the level to which everyone around the Colts stops to point out Cross' success seems to go above and beyond mere preseason hype. He was my favorite guy coming out of the draft, I think he fits really well for Dan Campbell, and he's going to produce a lot of highlight-reel plays very quicklya lead that Thibodeaux may not be able to claw back by the time he's back up to speed. Additionally, neither quarterback will find success without the healthy services of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. The Pats were already better than that, and will likely see improvement from their second-year QB (Cleveland, of course, is highly unlikely to see improvement at QB over last year until Week 13 at the earliest). I think FO had him at 7 or 8 dropped interceptions (though boy that sounds low based on my casual watching of MN games) plus he fumbled 12 times. Better than throwing your money away at a running back, at any rate! Detroit came in According to Football Outsiders advanced metrics, the Dolphins rank 28th against short passes. Well, yes. They can't generate meaningful pressure, nor convert it into sacks when it happens. One less game does everything. The opening spread may have been calling for a wider finish to Monday Night Football, but the betting markets believe this divisional showdown could be much tighter than first projected. Aaron: I'm going to go with Robert Woods at +5000 as my longshot. There's a world where Tom Brady is Old, the Saints offense is just OK, and the Saints still end up winning the division in style. Aaron: Well, the Football Outsiders team projections narrowly put the Chargers over the Chiefs for the AFC West title and the Vikings over the Packers for the NFC North title. Aaron Schatz: Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers. Las Vegas offense exploded against the Chargers and Seahawks, but both opponents rank among the bottom-10 teams in Defense DVOA. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is suffering from the worst Super Bowl hangover in recent memory. AP won because of a confluence of factors, including a historic season + a comeback off injury story where people had left him for dead + Manning and Brady stole from one another. If Jacksonville wants to make a run at a playoff berth, they need to take care of their divisional competition, and their passing offense could be enough to spring the upset here if they can hit a few big chunk plays down the field. Seattle has too tough a closing schedule to represent any real value, and there is not magic playoff switch Tom Brady could flip that would get me to trust a team thats played as poorly as the Buccaneers most of the season. At a certain point, the Chargers curse is going to go away. New Orleans, which forced the Bucs to go 5-for-17 on third downs in Week 2, ranks out 12th in third down conversion defense and has the third lowest touchdown rate allowed in the red zone (47.06%). Also baffled at the number for the Chargers. You said yesterday that you prefer Nick as your Bosa brother with the most sacks, but I actually like Joey. Hey, off topic a little, I heard we are going to send Perriman on his way ? The real issue here is Football Outsiders pitching this as a bold move. Kenny Pickett (+900) isn't currently the starter in Pittsburgh, but the chances are strong enough that he'll start Week 1or soon afterwardsto make him the favorite. That would be on brand for this awful, awful decade. Especially because he's a showy coach, in that a lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness. I don't disagree with you though regarding Hill or the award likelihood. Imagine what Tyreek Hill (+6000) can do in the YAC-friendly Kyle Shanahan offense, which Mike McDaniel has brought with him to Miami. *Eligible USA locations only. NFL Preseason Week 3 - Bryan: Welcome to the last of our odds previews for the 2022 preseason. Vincent Verhei: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). I think they're getting undervalued because of underestimation of just how badly all the injuries hurt them last season. Aaron: Playmaker Score liked Treylon Burks the best out of this year's receivers, but Burks has had issues in training camp with the Tennessee Titans. Adams did amazing things as a Packer. Bryan: I'll get to Pickett soon enough, have no fear, but for my best bet, I want someone who is starting from Week 1. The bruising running back has anchored a methodical Las Vegas playbook that is chewing up clock and controlling possession during the winning streak. There's no Exec pick because there aren't any odds available that I could easily find. When he had good defenders, their defense was really good. Before considering that he lost his WR1 which previous FO research showed *generally* resulted in worse outcomes for both QB and WR in year N+1, and his best weapon is an ever aging Kelce. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. Vincent Verhei: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. And even then, it was reasonably closePeterson got just 61% of the vote, with Manning picking up the rest of it. He lost Hill. I expect the Bucs to move the ball better on Monday, settle for a few field goals, but also add a couple of extra points to Succops boxscore. But its very complicated. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Hardly any discussion of defense much less special teams. They're in a dead heat with the Cowboys for best team in the NFC, both by our numbers and by general perception, and we give them an 80% chance of earning the bye and home field, both of which are huge in this sort of thing. Re: the Bills, I agree with the others that they are probably the single most likely team to win it all; I can't think of anyone I'd "objectively" rate higher (only real other contenders were KC, who, you know, did in fact outplay them last year in the game that's given the Bills so much hype; and the Rams, whose stars in their famous stars-and-scrubs roster are all squarely in their prime, though Stafford's elbow is worrying). Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? I'll make my pick for Jamarr Chase to win Offensive player of the year. Dallas is favored by more than two touchdowns and should be looking to grind through clock for much of the second half on the ground. Garoppolo was 10th in Football Outsiders DYAR (total value) metric in 2021 higher than [Josh] Allen, [Joe] Burrow andRussell Wilson. Football Outsiders is not saying the team will win X amount of games, but rather looks at the probabilities of various outcomes for the season. Bold, at least to many covering the Steelers at this point in time, would be signing cornerback JC Jackson to the richest deal in position history, or trading a bunch of future picks for Aaron Rodgers and prying the championship window wide open once again. Tampa Bay is 2-9 O/U on the season while NOLA enters 6-6 O/U. I wasn't on that podcast, or I would have argued for pushing him into the As; I think that now that Mahomes' contract extension has kicked in, Burrow is literally the most valuable player in football, as in the player with the most value for his actual cap hit. Again, Parcells, Philips and now McCarthy. Covers Consensus is showing 54% of picks on Tampa Bay as of Sunday morning. Our NFL betting picks break down Akers' rushing total for Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles. Totally agree with Carl on the value part. Seattle Seahawks (+2000) . And with losing Hill, Mahomes's volume, if anything, is likely to climb even higher. 1 seed thanks to that schedule, and from there who knows? The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Garrett Wilson (+1400) was second in Playmaker Score and should have plenty of opportunity as WR1 for the New York Jets. Yet. According to DraftKings, 68% of bet count and 78% of handle is riding on the Raiders in their home away from home while Covers Consensus concurs with 63% of picks siding with the Silver and Black. Schatz knows what he's doing, but a projection for them to be top-5 in all 3 phases seems. aggressive, given their track record to date. Top-five DVOA projection in all three phases. I think Lamar Jackson is still an MVP-caliber player, and even if the receiver corps isn't world-class, the rushing attack and Jackson's dual-threat abilities make them one of the hardest teams to game-plan against. The Rams offense has been declawed, at least through the air, since losing Stafford and Kupp. WebFirst, predictive models of all types have two main areas of concern: under-fitting and over fitting. Hill could put up extraordinary numbers, and maybe McDaniel uses him as a runner a bit too, which gives that little extra novelty that might get Hill some OPOY votes. Motivating the talent. On first downs, for example, Miami is the No. Dude. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. While Tony Pollard has been the more explosive and efficient of the Dallas runners, I'm counting on Elliott racking up plenty of volume as the Cowboys kill clock in the second half. When gambling is legalized in Massachusetts, I will never place a bet on any AP award. But more importantly, who would you pick over them? Akers is now not only sharing touches with Williams but also WRs Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 68 yards on seven attempts in Week 13. Aaron: Every year, there's always the possibility of Patrick Mahomes just going completely HAM on the NFL. Dallas Cowboys (+280) Heading into the weekend, DraftKings was reporting 64% of the bet count on the home favorite, but 54% of money riding on the Saints. DOOM Index is this week! Plus all we ever hear or read, including in this very article, is that QB is 'the' critical position in the NFL. When they had to start over with rookies everywhere, it was just run of the mill bad. An interesting comment given this is a gambling site, you are presenting actual odds, and you cast a vote in the outcome. Those intermediate middle passes that Tua Tagovailoa loves so much? He's going to be my favorite in this category until the moment he retires, and then maybe a good season or two after that. In reply to How likely is Dallas to by colonialbob. Including their postseason meeting, these NFC South foes have played Under in five of seven matchups since Bradys became a Bucs, including staying below the Week 2 total of 43.5 points (Tampa won 20-10). The games high-scoring and fast-paced expectations can The Bucs offense has plenty of playmakers that are finally getting healthy, though the offensive line continues to battle injuries that have plagued this unit since the summer. If you want to insinuate that something untoward is going on, make an accusation. The comparison to a boxing judge just isn't a good fit. Most observers would say Jefferson is a more talented receiver than Kupp, so imagine the numbers he could put up in that role! And what if OK, now you really have to imagine what if the Atlanta Falcons win enough games for people to actually pay attention to how good AJ Terrell is? Here are two of the best bonuses* available: A) Buccaneers to win, and both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to have seven or more receptions BOOSTED to +850 at bet365! You also have two franchises rooted in defense that know each other playbooks inside and out. At the same time, it's perplexing (i.e. The Raiders defense has been much more dangerous in terms of pass pressure and takeaways but is still ranked 31st in defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. L.A. is ravaged by injuries and has lost six Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Last year their 13-4 team only had the tenth best point differential. Seems like 75% analytics, 25% narrative. It never feels good to pick the favorite in a value conversation, but 2:1 feels awfully fair for the team most likely to earn the bye and would therefore need only two wins to cash this bet, while the others would all require three. Packers seem to be on a downswing rather than an upswing, Rams / AFC West teams are in tough divisions, 49ers are relying on Lance, etc. That short number has remained relatively steady all week, with some brief dips to 40 points seeing buyback on the Over and the number sitting at an industry consensus of 40.5 as of Sunday morning. Zach Wilson can make big plays; his problem is that he makes bad plays instead of checking down when the big play isn't there. The Niners signal-caller is much better than his national perception would have you believe. So I admit to being a bit bedazzled by the third man to hit that mark, Christian McCaffrey, as I love his playstyle and his usage beyond the limits of rational thought. Tampa Bay appears to be the class of the NFC South, according to the NFL odds to win the division, but sharp action isnt buying into the Bucs, at least as it pertains to this prime-time tilt. My head hurts but I can see it. Week 14 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44.5) and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. In reply to There's no Exec pick because by Bryan Knowles. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? This year, he has bungled his quarterback situation quite badly, and he has the temporary replacement of Ben McAdoo right there in house already. The Pittsburgh Steelers are certainly going to be active this offseason, that much is certain. No matter if its Wolford, Mayfield or Bryce Perkins under center, Los Angeles will continue to lean into its running game. Not even mentioning all the new defensive additions Staley's been provided, which the voters of course would mention. Bryan: Or Kenny Pickett. That should give Joey easier matchups than Nick throughout the year, which should lead to larger numbers. Just like yesterday, we're picking three players for each prop. But, Cousins has been pressured on pass plays at a pretty hefty rate with past Vikings lines. Yes, he missed the bomb that might have won the Niners Super Bowl LIV. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. Bryan: It has been 10 years since a non-quarterback won MVP, when Adrian Peterson rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2012. Am planning on doing the same with the Yankees in the spring. Not ridiculous. Playoffs? And because OPOY doesn't have the same sort of successful team requirements we see in the MVP race, I could see McCaffrey being the one bright spot in a long Panthers season, and getting some votes for success in suboptimal conditions. The other was against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, so fair play to them there, but that leaves them with one game all season where they have played well against a team with a viable starting quarterback. Due in part to Cousins and the salary situation they found themselves in; they were stealth all in after their NFC title game appearance; a veteran heavy team with Cousins that suddenly had to retool overnight but because Cousins is far from a bad qb; the results were mediocre. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season. Of COURSE! I think it's safe to say if he comes anywhere near that, he'll be a strong contender for comeback player as well. That pans out to 2.5 average field goal attempts from NOLAs foes this season third most in the NFL and rival kickers have put up totals of seven, eight, and eight points in the last three games. While I am at it, I think the first coach to get fired is McCarthy. Editor-in-Chief Bryan: I have been looking for odds on Sammy Womack everywhere, because if I don't get one homer pick in these things, I start to break out in hives. My best value is Joe Burrow at +1200. The offensive line, especially compared to what he had by the Bay (or more accurately, Silicon Valley), is a concern, but unlike Roethlisberger, who at the end had the mobility of a bank safe, Garoppolo is agile enough to somewhat mitigate the lack of talent up front. That's a testament to him imo, Comeback player of the year: Allen Robinson. It's difficult to imagine that happening today. This spread hit the board as low as Dallas -9 early Tuesday morning, following the Colts loss to Pittsburgh at home Monday night. What if he puts it together in his second year, now that he has real NFL coaching? We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. Bryan: You're right when you say that rookie quarterbacks are the best choices for rookie of the year, when they play. Stafford is also a decent value pick for MVP, although probably not the best. I was moderately impressed by Ridder's performance so far in the preseason, and I'm still gobsmacked by Derrick Klassen's never-ending love for the guy. Copy this into the source of your page where you want the article to appear: Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. Aaron: What if AJ Terrell (+6500) puts together another year like last year, where he had the best cornerback charting stats since Darrelle Revis? 2 pass offense and the Chargers have the No. New Orleans has also been a tough opponent for Tom Brady since he arrived in Tampa, with NOLA going 4-1 straight up and against the spread vs. the Bucs in the regular season the past three years. Much more than that seems difficult. I'll look forward to the Keystone State Bowl this February, after which it will show that all of our picks are, as always, 100% correct. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. (ya never know) Then he would have a winning narrative ('so it WAS! Bryan: It does raise questions about whether they should change the name from "Most Valuable" Player to "Best" Player, but maybe I just want to see Justin Tucker win a dozen of these things. This is where I tend to disagree with a lot of people. But it is possible he could put up another Tyreke year. Brown. Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a short week could adversely affect him more. Is this where I give my big Jacksonville Jaguars speech again? That scares me away from picking him. He's given full disclosure that he's an AP voter. 29 pass defense. Following the same trend as his passing DVOA: 2018: 39.9% More Stats and information for you by ~DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders~ >> The Eagles enter the field with an 8-0 record on the season. The Panthers were still talking about starting Sam Darnold even after trading for Baker Mayfield. I think all of the coaching flaws are magnified when the roster is bad. By DVOA, the best team in the AFC North last year was actually Cleveland, who were only 14th. If either of those things happen, the head coach in question is a very good Coach of the Year candidate. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Jacksonville is coming off their worst game by DVOA this year but is only one week removed from a major upset win over the Baltimore Ravens. Aaron: My favorite "what is he coming back from?" If they can get that fixed, there's a pretty good core here. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Aaron: I think it's more likely that Cooper Kupp puts up another year of fantastic receiving numbers than it is that Jonathan Taylor can match last year's rushing numbers. In all seriousness, I would pick Kupp and Donald as favourites, the Rams as the value pick for SB winner, and Robinson as the value pick for comeback player of the year. CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. Well, that's why these are our longshot bets. The NFC North battle will also likely be played at a blistering pace. I think there's pretty good odds McCarthy is not the coach of the Cowboys next season, but I don't think he's let go in the middle of the year. I don't think it's likely, but if they happen to stumble by some close losses early, it will lead to a call for his head a la Wade Phillips. I just looked at the upset board and wasnt as in love with the Jags as my colleagues, so I decided to go against the 7th round rookie making his first career start, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. 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